Buy or sell NVDA? Here’s what I’m doing (from Tim Sykes)
While you were offline, some massive shifts just rocked the markets.
The Fed's about to blink. Oil's tanking on peace talk rumors.
And somehow, NYC's socialist mayor is now Trump's housing policy partner.
If you think this weekend can't get weirder, wait until you hear what may happen with Nvidia and China.
Trump & Mamdani Meeting
Zohran Mamdani, the mayor-elect of New York City, stood by his view that Trump is a threat to democracy. But here's the thing, he met with Trump at the White House last week, and they actually agreed to work together on housing costs and food prices.
"The better he does, the happier I am."
That's politics in 2025. You can think someone's dangerous and still have to get stuff done with them.
Key points:
Mamdani called Trump "fascist"
Had productive White House meeting earlier
Plans to work together on affordability issues
"Working for New Yorkers means collaborating with everyone"
Oil Drops as Ukraine Peace Talks Heat Up
Oil prices fell again today, continuing last week's slide. The reason? Trump set a Thursday deadline for a Ukraine peace deal, and investors think it might actually happen. But Rubio sees Ukraine deadline easing after “productive talks.”
If Russia and Ukraine reach a peace deal, sanctions on Russian oil could get rolled back. That means more supply hitting the market.
But there's another angle. That potential Fed rate cut could boost demand by improving the global economy. So you've got two forces pulling oil in different directions.
Key points:
Oil extended last week's losses
Russian sanctions could be lifted
Fed rate cut might offset bearish pressure
Fed Rate Cut Odds
The chances of a December rate cut just shot up after last week's market chaos. Bill Gross, a legendary investor, says the Fed has to step in. Why? Because keeping markets calm is basically their unofficial third job.
The story got more interesting when NY Fed President John Williams spoke on November 21st. His comments sounded dovish—that's Fed-speak for "we're probably cutting rates soon." Markets heard it loud and clear.
Key points:
69% probability of December cut
Market dropped hard on November 20th
Williams signaled rates will likely move lower soon
Fed's "market stability mandate" in play
OpenAI & Foxconn Team Up
OpenAI and Foxconn just announced they're partnering to manufacture AI infrastructure in the US. We're talking data center racks, cooling systems, power systems—the physical stuff that makes AI actually run.
Sam Altman called this a chance to "reindustrialize America." That's not just marketing talk. Right now, most of this hardware gets made overseas. Building it domestically changes the game for supply chains and jobs.
Key points:
Partnership announced November 20th
Focus: AI data center hardware
Multiple generations of equipment planned
Cooling and power systems built in US
Nvidia Chip Sales to China
The US government is considering letting Nvidia sell H200 chips to China again. These are powerful AI chips that were previously restricted. The decision isn't final, but the fact it's being discussed signals a potential shift in export policy.
This comes as tech trade policy with China keeps bouncing around. One month restrictions tighten, the next they loosen. $NVDA ( ▼ 4.17% ) and China's AI development both hinge on where this lands.
Key points:
H200 chips could get export approval
Decision still under consideration
Would reverse previous restrictions
Major impact for Nvidia and China AI sector
