Quick Market News:
Trump: war ends in two to three weeks: deal or not
UAE prepared to join fight to help secure the STrait of Hormuz
Trump's economic approval rating hits an all-time low
Rubio: mission is to eliminate Iran's missiles and drone program
Iran ready to stop fighting if non-attack guarantees are givenPhilippines and South Korea receiving Russian oil; Asia talks widen
OpenAI closes $122B round; valuation hits $852B with Nvidia, SoftBank, AmazonBuffett: "I sold Apple too soon" — but not buying in this market
Nike shares fall 9% on weak outlook, expected 20% sales decline in China
Good morning, Trader.
The market is speaking in two completely different languages right now — and both cannot be right. Energy is up 41%. Defense has added 25%. Meanwhile, NVIDIA is down 6%, META has shed 13%, and one of the world's most successful investors just went public with his most bullish call in years.
Bill Ackman is buying. Not quietly. Not cautiously. Loudly, publicly, and with conviction. The Iran war created this window. The question isn't whether you see the opportunity — it's whether you act before the window closes. This is your briefing.
TOP STORY
Ackman says now is "one of the best times to buy quality" — and the Iran war is handing investors the discount.
On March 30, Bill Ackman posted on X that some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices — calling the current moment one of the best long-term entry points in years. His own Pershing Square fund is down ~13.9% YTD, but he is leaning in, not out.
Why it matters: The Iran war created a two-speed market. Defense and energy are surging. World-class tech is bleeding. Ackman sees this divergence as the opportunity of the cycle.
WHY IT MATTERS
The CERAWeek Split Screen — Instability Is the Defining Mood
At the world's most influential energy gathering in Houston this week, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance summed it up with a subdued chuckle: "It's a bit unstable." That understatement is carrying real market weight.
The split screen: Oil markets jolted by Iran → WTI peaked above $100/bbl in March. AI-driven power demand surging → nuclear + data center equities climbing. Energy Secretary Chris Wright insists the conflict will be "short-lived" — despite no end in sight.
NVIDIA appeared at CERAWeek for the first time, pitching nuclear + Microsoft initiatives and flexible data centers
Google's Ruth Porat warned the US is "not full throttle on energy" for AI data center needs
Venezuelan opposition leader drew the conference's only standing ovation pitching oil reserves — ConocoPhillips CEO called Venezuela's oil law reforms "woefully inadequate"
Novel energy storage companies closed fresh AI-demand deals throughout the week
THE BIG PICTURE
Ackman's Thesis + Iran War = 5 Specific Opportunities
Ackman's playbook is consistent: find world-class businesses mispriced by fear. The Iran war is manufacturing fear. Here is where the mispricing is showing up most clearly.
RTX (+5.2% YTD · $200 · P/E 38.4x): Defense spending is not slowing. RTX holds a record $268B backlog — up 23% year over year. Pratt & Whitney just landed a $3.8B engine contract. The Pentagon doesn't renegotiate in wartime. A proposed $200B supplemental appropriation is moving through Congress.
LMT (+25% YTD · $662 · P/E 29.7x): Lockheed's $194B backlog equals 2.5x its annual revenue — all contracted, government-obligated dollars. THAAD production ramping 317%. PAC-3 MSE expanding 233%. LMT is near all-time highs at $692 for good reason: the war made its backlog bulletproof.
XOM (+41% YTD · $162 · P/E 24x): The energy sector's undisputed war premium play. Oil above $95/bbl on Strait of Hormuz risk. Exxon produces at home, sells globally. XOM Q1 earnings drop April 2 — guidance will set the next leg. 1-Year return: +40.5%.
META (-13.3% YTD · $573 · P/E 22.1x): Ackman's high-conviction contrarian bet. Down from its $796 August 2025 peak, yet surged 7% in a single session on March 31 on Iran de-escalation signals. AI infrastructure spend is becoming the moat. Earnings April 29 — the catalyst that resets the narrative.
NVDA (-6.2% YTD · $174 · P/E 35.4x): Tariff fears drove the 2026 selloff. But CERAWeek confirmed AI data centers need more power than the US grid can deliver. NVIDIA sells the infrastructure for both AI compute and nuclear energy optimization. Analyst consensus: $266 target — implying +52.5% upside from $174.
BY THE NUMBERS
YTD Returns — April 1, 2026
RTX: +5.18%
LMT: +24.96%
XOM: +40.98%
META: -13.33%
NVDA: -6.22%
Energy sector (XLE): +28.2%
Ackman's Pershing Square: -13.9%
WHAT TO WATCH
3 Near-Term Catalysts That Move All 5 Stocks
Q1 earnings (April): XOM reports April 2. RTX and LMT report April 21. META reports April 29. Defense guidance signals how deep the Iran premium runs. A ceasefire = sell signal for RTX/LMT/XOM, buy signal for META/NVDA.
Iran conflict duration: Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed US is allowing Iranian tankers to pass the Strait — a de-escalation signal. Markets are pricing prolonged conflict. This tension between rhetoric and reality is the trade.
Fed rate path: Three cuts in late 2025 are already priced in. Core PPI rose 3.4% in January 2026. If tariff-driven inflation stays anchored, cuts benefit META and NVDA. If not, the energy/defense trade extends further.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Ackman isn't wrong often — and he's rarely this loud about buying. The Iran war created a bifurcated market where defense and energy are priced for escalation, while world-class tech is priced for collapse. Both cannot be right simultaneously.
The investor's job right now is to decide which mispricing is bigger — and position before the market resolves the contradiction. The earnings season starting this week will accelerate that resolution.
