Intel Beat Earnings. Records on Wall Street. A Naval Blockade With No End Date.

Seven weeks into the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. And this week, things got sharper. On Wednesday, President Trump issued a direct order to the U.S. Navy to "shoot and kill" any Iranian small boats caught placing mines in the Strait, while simultaneously tripling U.S. minesweeping operations in the area. Trump also extended the Iran-Lebanon ceasefire indefinitely — citing Tehran's government as "seriously fractured." Iran did not formally acknowledge the extension and continued seizing vessels.

U.S. Central Command has now redirected at least 33 ships attempting to enter or exit Iranian ports since the naval blockade began in mid-April. The U.S. boarded two sanctioned tankers — the Majestic X and the Tifani — in the Indian Ocean this week. Iran hit back by seizing two commercial ships of its own, the Epaminondas and the MSC Francesca, and began collecting transit tolls from vessels passing through the Strait. Peace talks in Islamabad were pushed back indefinitely. Iran says it won't return to the table until the blockade is lifted.

There's an important distinction here that markets may be missing. This isn't a full military engagement — it's a war of economic attrition. Both sides are using the Strait as leverage, which makes it much harder to call the timing of a resolution. The IEA's director told CNBC this week: "We are facing the biggest energy security challenge in history." That's not hyperbole. Roughly 20% of global oil supply and significant LNG flows go through that waterway.

Let's start with the number. Intel reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.29. Wall Street's consensus was somewhere between breakeven and $0.02. That's not a modest beat — that's roughly a 2,000% upside surprise. The stock jumped as much as 20% in after-hours Wednesday. And by Friday premarket, it was up over 30% as investors had more time to process what the results actually mean. For a company that's spent years being written off as a laggard, this is the kind of result that forces a full rethink.

The full picture is just as strong. Revenue came in at $13.6 billion, up 7% year-over-year and well ahead of the $12.4 billion estimate. Non-GAAP gross margin hit 41%, beating internal guidance by 650 basis points — meaning Intel's product mix was better and costs were better controlled than even management had projected. Here's how the three main segments broke down:

Think of Intel's three divisions like a renovation project on a house. The Data Center wing just got a brand new addition and people are lining up to rent space. The PC wing is holding steady — not growing, but not collapsing either. And the Foundry — the manufacturing backbone of the whole operation — is still mid-construction. It's costing money now, but it's what everything else depends on long-term.

On partnerships: Intel is not rebuilding alone. The company confirmed it is joining Elon Musk's Terafab chip complex in Austin, producing chips for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI using Intel's 14A process technology — its most advanced node. Musk confirmed on Tesla's earnings call that Tesla plans to use 14A for vehicle and robotics chips. Intel also announced a multiyear AI collaboration with Google and repurchased a 49% stake in its Fab 34 facility in Ireland for $7.7 billion, solidifying ownership of one of its key manufacturing sites. The Q2 outlook is also constructive: Intel is guiding for revenue of $13.8–$14.8 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.20.

Tesla's Q1 2026 report was more complicated than the headline beat suggested, and the stock reaction — down about 3% — reflected that. Let's go through what actually happened, because the full picture matters here.

On the profit side, Tesla genuinely delivered. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.41, beating the $0.35–0.37 consensus, and up 52% from a year ago. GAAP net income was $477 million, up from $409 million in Q1 2025. Gross margin expanded to 21.1%, up from 16.3% a year ago, helped by lower material costs and one-time tariff and warranty benefits. That part of the story is real and encouraging.

But revenue told a different story. Tesla reported $22.39 billion — up 16% year-over-year, but slightly below the $22.64 billion analyst consensus. Deliveries of 358,023 vehicles also missed forecasts of roughly 365,600. Tesla produced 408,386 vehicles during the quarter, creating a surplus of over 50,000 units and pushing finished inventory to 27 days of supply — a level that signals demand isn't quite keeping up with the production line. Energy storage deployment was 8.8 GWh, well below the 12–14 GWh analysts had expected.

Now for the part that got less attention but may matter most long-term. Buried in Tesla's Q1 10-Q SEC filing was a disclosure that the company has agreed to acquire an unnamed AI hardware company for up to $2 billion in stock and equity. Only $200 million is guaranteed upfront — the remaining $1.8 billion is tied to performance milestones. Analysts reading the structure believe Tesla is essentially acquiring a team and early-stage technology, not an established product. The deal coincides with Tesla completing its AI5 chip design and locking in the Intel 14A partnership for manufacturing at Terafab.

The Robotaxi expansion to Dallas and Houston is real progress. Tesla's autonomous program has been "almost there" for years, and geographic expansion of a live service — even a small one — is evidence it's moving beyond controlled demos. But here's the honest takeaway: Tesla beat on profit, missed on revenue and deliveries, raised spending by $5 billion, and warned cash flow goes negative. That's a company making big bets. Whether those bets pay off is the question investors are sitting with right now.

The clearest theme across tech earnings this week was a sharp divide: AI hardware is thriving; enterprise software is struggling. The split isn't subtle. It's showing up in revenue numbers, stock prices, and management commentary across the sector.

Texas Instruments was the standout among chipmakers. Revenue hit $4.83 billion, up 19% year-over-year, driven by a 90% jump in data center revenue and 30%+ growth in industrial applications. EPS of $1.68 beat estimates by a wide margin. The company issued strong Q2 guidance — projecting $5.0–$5.4 billion in revenue. The stock surged 10%. For context, this is the chip company that supplies semiconductors to nearly every industrial and automotive manufacturer in the world. When TXN's numbers are this strong, it signals that real-economy demand for chips isn't slowing down.

The broader semiconductor sector got swept up in the momentum. The PHLX Semiconductor Index hit new all-time highs. Arm Holdings rose 11%. Broadcom gained nearly 5%. TSMC added 4–5% on the week as investors extrapolated strong AI demand into the chip supply chain. The one exception was ASML, whose stock fell despite strong earnings after the company issued weaker-than-expected Q2 guidance, reminding investors that guidance always matters more than last quarter's results.

On Tuesday, Kevin Warsh — Trump's nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair — sat before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing. It was two hours of sharp questions, careful answers, and at least one genuinely funny moment. The bigger story, though, is what it signals about where the Fed is heading.

The central question senators came in with was simple: will Warsh just do whatever Trump tells him on interest rates? Warsh's answer was direct. Asked flat-out whether he would be Trump's "human sock puppet," he said "absolutely not." He went further, stating that Trump never asked him to commit to any rate decision during their discussions — and that he wouldn't have agreed to it if he had. Treasury yields still ticked up during the hearing, which tells you markets weren't entirely convinced.

Here's what else came out of Tuesday's hearing that investors should know about. Warsh said he wants "regime change" at the Fed — and he wasn't being subtle about it. He wants fewer public statements from Fed officials, possibly fewer policy meetings per year (though he stopped short of committing to eight), and a fresh look at the Fed's inflation framework. He also said the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet — grown from $800 billion when he first joined in 2006 — has made the central bank too big a presence in the economy. On that point he actually agreed with some of his Democratic questioners, arguing the Fed's balance sheet size has contributed to wealth inequality by inflating asset prices.

But here's the wrinkle: Warsh may not be confirmed anytime soon. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has promised to block the nomination from leaving committee until the Department of Justice drops a criminal investigation into Powell over a Fed building renovation. Republicans hold a 12-10 advantage on the Banking Committee — meaning a single Republican holdout is all it takes. Powell has said he'll stay on until the matter is resolved. That means heading into next week's FOMC meeting, Powell is still running the Fed, a rate cut is essentially off the table, and the question of who leads the central bank through 2026 remains genuinely open.