Former JPMorgan Star Predicts 50% Silver Crash by End of 2026

Precious metals reached historic all-time highs.

Gold surges past $5,130 per ounce.

Silver just did something it hasn't done in over 40 years: it hit $117 per ounce, smashing through every previous record. 

Retail investors are celebrating. 

Mining stocks are up 400%. 

Bank of America is talking about $309 targets. 

But one of the most respected strategists on Wall Street just predicted an "almost guaranteed" 50% drop. 

This is the story

Let's look at what the major banks are actually saying about silver right now.

Major Bank Silver Price Targets for 2026

Those are the official forecasts. But Kolanovic's warning cuts through all of it. He's betting on mean reversion, hard and fast.

To understand where we're going, you need to know how we got here.

Silver started 2025 around $29 an ounce. By year-end, it was trading near $81. That's a 180% gain. Then January 2026 hit, and things got wild. The metal smashed through $100, then $110, setting new all-time highs almost daily.

Three big forces are pushing it up. 

First, industrial demand. Solar panels eat up silver. AI chips need it. Electric vehicles use it. More than half of global silver demand now comes from industry, not investment.

Second, there's a supply problem. The Silver Institute projects a fifth straight year of structural deficits. Mines can't keep up. London vaults are running low. Physical outflows have been constant.

Third, the macro picture. When investors don't trust currencies, they buy hard assets. With Trump talking tariffs, the Fed's independence questioned, and fiscal spending out of control, precious metals look safer than bonds or cash.

Silver's current rally reflects intense safe-haven and investment demand, as well as a prolonged tightness in the physical market. 

If you want to play silver without buying bars, the mining stocks are where the action is. Here's what the top names look like right now.

Silver Mining Stocks Performance Overview

Pan American Silver $PAAS ( ▼ 2.19% ) is the steady hand here. It's the world's premier silver producer, with operations across North and South America. The company just closed a $2.1 billion deal for MAG Silver, adding the high-grade Juanipio mine to its portfolio.

First Majestic $AG ( ▼ 1.28% ) is the momentum play. The stock's up more than 380% in a year, but it's also trading at 209 times earnings. The company completed its Gatos Silver acquisition in early 2025, which boosted production by 39% year-over-year.

Wheaton Precious Metals $WPM ( ▲ 1.27% ) takes a different approach. It doesn't mine anything. Instead, it buys streaming contracts, giving miners cash upfront in exchange for future silver deliveries at fixed prices. When silver prices surge, Wheaton's profits explode.

The bulls have real arguments. 

Start with supply and demand. The Silver Institute forecasts continued deficits. Mining output is flat. New projects take years to develop. Meanwhile, solar panel installations are accelerating globally. Every AI server uses silver. EVs need it in batteries and electronics.

Bank of America's most bullish case sees silver hitting $309 if the gold-to-silver ratio returns to historical norms. Right now, it takes about 50 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Historically, that ratio has been closer to 40 or even 30. 

If gold hits $6,000 and the ratio tightens, the math gets wild fast.

Then there's the monetary angle. Central banks have been buying gold by the ton, trying to reduce dollar exposure. Some analysts think silver is next. It's cheaper, more liquid for smaller transactions, and has that same "hard money" appeal.

Bull Case Key Points:

Now let's talk about why Kolanovic thinks this ends badly.

His argument is simple. Speculative manias don't end gently. They pop. And silver has all the warning signs.

Look at the positioning. Retail investors are flooding into silver ETFs. The iShares Silver Trust has seen massive inflows. So has the Sprott Physical Silver ETF. When everyone's on the same side of the boat, that's usually when it tips over.

Kolanovic points to history. In the 1970s, gold rallied from $40 to $200. Everyone thought it would go to the moon. Instead, it crashed back near $100. Many investors who bought the top got wiped out. Only later did gold eventually reach $800.

The same pattern played out in 2011. Silver hit $48.70, then collapsed by more than 60% over the next few years. The industrial demand story was real then too. It didn't stop the crash.

"Silver is not gold. It's gold with beta—and beta cuts both ways. When positioning unwinds, it unwinds violently."

Kevin Muir, a contrarian trader, recently said silver may have already peaked. His argument: silver stalled while gold kept rallying. That's often how tops form.

You can't talk about silver without looking at gold. And gold's story right now is just as dramatic.

Gold surged roughly 65% in 2025. That's the biggest annual gain since 1979. And most major banks think it's going higher.

Goldman Sachs just raised its target to $5,400, up from $4,900. The bank says this isn't a short-term fear trade anymore. Investors are treating gold as insurance against long-term risks like debt levels, policy uncertainty, and central bank independence concerns.

Central banks are the big story. Emerging market central banks bought nearly 1,000 tonnes per quarter in 2025. That's 50% higher than the previous four-quarter average. China, India, Turkey, and Poland have been the biggest buyers. They're diversifying away from the dollar, and gold is where they're going.

JPMorgan forecasts central banks will buy around 585 tonnes per quarter in 2026. Western gold ETFs added 500 tonnes in early 2025 alone. Record inflows of nearly $89 billion pushed holdings to all-time highs.

This is the tough part. Both sides have credible arguments.

If you're bullish on silver, the industrial demand story is real. The supply deficit is real. The safe-haven flows are real. But you have to accept that volatility comes with the territory. Silver can drop 20% in a week and nobody blinks.

If you're worried about Kolanovic's warning, history is on your side. Mean reversion is powerful. But timing it is nearly impossible. He's calling for a 50% drop "within a year or so." That's a wide window.

The middle path might make the most sense for most investors. If you don't own any silver, maybe don't chase it at $117. Wait for a pullback. If you already own it and you're sitting on huge gains, consider taking some profits. Lock in the win.

Silver just hit $117. That's historic. But whether it's the start of something bigger or the top of a bubble, nobody knows for sure.

Wall Street is split. JPMorgan's official research team sees $58 by year-end. 

Bank of America sees a path to $135 or even higher. 

But Marko Kolanovic, one of the most respected strategists of the past decade, says it's headed for a 50% crash.

Gold's probably heading higher. The central bank buying is structural, not cyclical. The debt concerns aren't going away. The geopolitical risks aren't fading. Most targets cluster around $5,500 to $6,000 for late 2026, with some models going higher.

But silver is different. It's more volatile. It's more industrial. It's more tied to economic cycles. And it's more loved by retail speculators.

Maybe this time really is different. Maybe the industrial deficit and AI demand push silver to $150. Maybe the gold-to-silver ratio closes and we see $200.

Or maybe Kolanovic is right. Maybe this is 1980 all over again. Maybe everyone piling in at $117 ends up learning a painful lesson about momentum trades.

Either way, the next six months should be wild.