Oil spiked to nearly $120/barrel overnight Sunday, the first triple-digit price since 2022.
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Around 20 million barrels per day have no safe passage.
Gas prices hit $3.45/gallon nationally, up from $3.00 the week before strikes began, a 16% jump in seven days.
Qatar declared force majeure on LNG exports after Iranian drone attacks damaged its terminals. Qatar supplies roughly 20% of global LNG.
Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery is closed, adding more pressure to global supply.
Crude analyst warns oil could reach $150/barrel by end of March if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen.
Mojtaba Khamenei has been named the new Supreme Leader
Busy week on deck.
Sunday night, oil prices briefly touched $120 a barrel, surged to 4-year highs.
That's a number that hasn't shown up since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. By Monday pre-market, Brent had pulled back to around $99 and WTI was sitting near $95.
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Iran's new leadership is signaling it will not back down. And a G7 emergency meeting today is trying to figure out whether releasing strategic oil reserves is enough to calm markets that are already rattled.
Here's what actually happened over the past four days, and more importantly, what it means for your money going forward.
The Fastest Oil Shock in History
Key Points:
The worst oil disruption since the Suez Crisis
Brent pulled back to $99, WTI near $95
G7 nations 'stand ready' to release emergency oil reserves
Nine days ago, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. What followed has been one of the most disruptive events in global energy markets in decades. Rapidan Energy Group estimates the war has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply, which they call "more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956 to 1957."
The core problem is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran's coast through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass every single day. Iran has threatened to attack any tanker that tries to use it. Shipping companies and their insurers have essentially stopped sending vessels through, leaving billions of dollars in cargo stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, compared the closure to "blocking the aorta" of the global energy system. And that's exactly what it feels like in the data right now.
On top of the strait closure, Qatar declared force majeure on LNG exports after drone attacks hit its terminals. Qatar supplies about 20% of global liquefied natural gas. Saudi Aramco's massive Ras Tanura refinery and crude export terminal is shut down. Kuwait cut production as a "precautionary" move. All of this, happening simultaneously, is why prices spiked as fast as they did.
Where do you think oil prices end up by April 1?
G7 Talks on Releasing Oil Reserves
Getty Images
Key Points:
G7 countries are considering releasing 300–400 million barrels from strategic reserves
20% of global oil supply is stranded
Qatar's LNG exports, Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura terminal, and Kuwait's production all went down at the same time
Brent crude peaked at $119.50 on Sunday and is trading near $106 as of Monday morning. WTI briefly touched $120 overnight and has pulled back to around $102. US gas prices hit $3.45 per gallon on Sunday, up from $3.00 the week before strikes began, a 16% jump in one week.
The pullback from $120 is real, but here's what's driving it: G7 countries are meeting today to discuss a coordinated release of 300 to 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves held by IEA member countries. That's roughly a quarter to a third of their combined stockpile of 1.2 billion barrels. The market got wind of that and eased a little.
But the $150/barrel scenario is not off the table. Homayoun Falakshahi, lead crude research analyst at Kpler, said oil could reach that level by the end of March if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz doesn't resume. And right now, there is no credible sign that traffic is resuming anytime soon.
Iran Leadership
Key Points:
Khamenei's son Mojtaba is reportedly the new Supreme Leader
Ali Larijani said flat-out: no surrender, no scaling back, the US "must pay the price"
The unified message from Tehran right now is zero de-escalation
This is where the story gets more complicated. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in the initial February 28 strikes. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been named the new supreme leader, though Iran has not formally announced this publicly. There are reported internal divisions over how and when to present the change.
Ali Larijani, who is effectively running Iran's wartime government as head of the Supreme National Security Council, said on March 7 that Iran will not surrender, will not scale back attacks, and the US "must pay the price" for Khamenei's death. That's as hardline as it gets.
Iran has hit US positions in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE with missiles and drones. President Pezeshkian briefly signaled a possible willingness to halt strikes on Gulf states, but quickly walked those comments back. The unified message from Iran's leadership right now is: no de-escalation.
Iran's new leadership is signaling zero de-escalation. How long before we see a ceasefire?
Markets React
Key Points:
Energy stocks rise as oil prices surge past $100 per barrel
The Dow had its worst week since April, futures dropped 800 points Sunday night alone
Morgan Stanley is now calling geopolitical risk a "persistent feature" of 2026
Their top picks: defense, security, aerospace, and industrial resilience
Here's what we know from the market's reaction so far. Energy and defense are being rewarded. Everything else is under pressure.
The Dow posted its worst week since April. Dow futures dropped more than 800 points Sunday night. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell 1.6%. The culprit? Markets are pricing in a prolonged conflict, not a quick resolution. When oil stays elevated, it flows through into inflation, which pressures consumer spending, which hits corporate earnings, which hits stocks.
Morgan Stanley made it pretty clear in a note this weekend: geopolitical risk is no longer episodic. It's a persistent feature of the landscape in 2026. Their recommended exposures include defense, security, aerospace, and industrial resilience, specifically sectors where government spending can drive years of demand regardless of what happens in the broader economy.
RBC's Helima Croft added a note that's worth sitting with: even with OPEC+ voting a larger-than-expected production increase over the weekend, that decision is "an entirely moot point" right now. As she put it, the lion's share of Gulf oil barrels could become "stranded assets in an extended war scenario." You can pump all the oil you want. If you can't ship it through the strait, it doesn't matter.
What You Should Be Watching This Week
First, watch the G7 outcome today. If ministers commit to a coordinated reserve release and markets believe it is large enough to offset near-term supply gaps, expect some further pullback in crude and a slight relief in equities.
Second, watch the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that disruptions will last "weeks, certainly not months," and that the US plan is to degrade Iran's ability to threaten tanker traffic. One tanker reportedly got through last week. If that number starts climbing, oil eases. If tankers remain halted, $130 or $150 oil is a real possibility before April.
Third, watch inflation expectations. A prolonged energy shock boxes the Fed in. They can't cut rates easily if oil-driven inflation is climbing. That means rate-sensitive assets like REITs, utilities, and long-duration bonds face continued headwinds.
Fourth, watch defense sector earnings and government contract announcements. Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman are likely to see increased order pipelines as the conflict drags on. The sector is up 18 to 31% over the past year, and that tailwind isn't going away soon.
Bottom Line
Oil going from $79 to nearly $120 in nine days. This is a real supply shock. The pullback to $105 is a relief, but the strait is still closed, Iran is still hitting targets across the Gulf, and the new leadership in Tehran is not sending peace signals.
For investors, the playbook right now is straightforward: reduce exposure to rate-sensitive assets and economically vulnerable cyclicals, consider energy and defense, and do not mistake volatility for opportunity if you do not have a clear thesis.
Keep watching the strait. Keep watching the G7. And keep watching your gas receipts, because they're telling you something the headlines haven't fully caught up to yet.
Stay sharp. Stay informed.
